The latest from Полнотекстовые фиды для блогофермеров
- Optimism to send Philippine stock prices higher this week
- Morning roundup: Omagh families await ruling
- Philippine central bank prepares for exit from policy easing
- Don't shit where you eat.
- red card;
- Probably Wouldn't Be This Way
- i can't differentiate between wants and needs;
- if you ain't got no money take your broke ass home;
- Deal of the week: GM (what else?)
- Former Norton Rose star Barbara Stephenson dies, aged 50
- Philippine May inflation down to 3.3%, 18-month low
- What recession? Philippine Central bank sees $6-B BPO earnings this year
- What recession? Philippine forex reserves rose to $39.5B in May
- More puzzles behind Philippine GDP figure
- What's wrong with the latest Philippine GDP data (II)
- I hope you like Spaghetti... they serve it three times a day in Italian prisons...
- Holiday.
- Innoculated City
Optimism to send Philippine stock prices higher this week | Top |
KRISTINE JANE R. LIU BusinessWorld http://www.bworldonline.com/BW060809/content.php?id=131 Investors' new-found optimism is expected to continue driving trading although profit taking because of the shortened trading week might temper the rally, analysts said. "The market is showing no signs of slowing down and seems to be heading for higher ground," AB Capital Securities, Inc. said. "Perceptions of improving external fundamentals are seen as the main catalysts for investors' new-found optimism." The massive amount of liquidity that has remained uninvested, the brokerage said, will add fuel to the market's continuous rally. And with interest rates at their current lows — and which are seen to go down some more — AB Capital Securities said this has made local stocks even more attractive because of the higher yields they offer. "Many investors and traders, who have been waiting for a correction, seem to have given up waiting. They have gone beyond technicals and are not afraid to [put their money in the stock market] despite the lack of a reasonable technical correction," it said. The composite index last week posted a week-on-week gain of 6% or 139.37 points to 2,528.68. Since the year started, the local market has gone up by 35.02% with almost all six subindices' values up by almost half. "A big chunk of money is coming from foreign fund managers, who are beginning to look at other countries that have stronger economic fundamentals," AB Capital Securities said. They are said to be favoring emerging economies that are reporting better numbers compared to major economies. Since the month started, foreign investors have been net buyers with P880 million. Despite the market heading higher, DBP-Daiwa Securities, Inc. said there might be occasional pullbacks due to the four-day trading week and the lack of market moving news. "[The market's recent surge might be impeded given the shortened trading week due to the celebration of Independence Day on Friday]," it said. "Moreover, with lack of fresh leads, investors may opt to realize gains given that the main index has already reached overbought levels," DBP-Daiwa Securities said. The only local economic data scheduled for release this week is exports for April. The National Statistics Office will release the data on Wednesday. Analysts said they expect the figure to be better since it has shown indications of bottoming out. In March, it declined by 30.9%, down from 39.1% drop in February. "In our view, investors will continue to focus on stocks with strong correlation with interest rates, especially property and bank ing sectors," DBP-Daiwa Securities said. Property shares rose by 10.64% to 918 week-on-week, while financial shares rallied by 4.91% to 599.23 week-on-week. AB Capital Securities, however, warned investors not to be overly optimistic and to take a break before engaging in excessive buying. "Given the high valuation and the overbought state of the market, we recommend against buying aggressively at this point in time," it said. "Market players should continue to play this rally by trading and not adopting a buy-and-hold strategy." The market, AB Capital Securities said, would nevertheless try to break its next resistance at 2,780 while support remains at 2,350. Source | |
Morning roundup: Omagh families await ruling | Top |
* The families of victims of the Omagh bombing, one of Northern Ireland's worst terrorist attacks, await the outcome of a civil claim against the men believed to be responsible ( The Times ). * Doubt that the FSA means business? The financial watchdog handed out a record £27.3 million in fines in the year ending March 31, a 514 per cent increase on the previous year, according to an analysis by Reynolds Porter Chamberlain. The average fine handed down in the past year was £497,000, compared with £212,000 the previous year ( The Telegraph ). * Linklaters, which is advising long-time client RBS on its legal options regarding former chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin's £700,000-a-year-pension, has submitted its report to the /bank 's board, The Sunday Telegraph reports . * A group of pension funds have asked the US Supreme Court to block the sale of Chrysler to Fiat, throwing the rescue of the /bank rupt carmaker into doubt ( The Wall Street Journal ). Source | |
Philippine central bank prepares for exit from policy easing | Top |
Paolo Luis G. Montecillo BusinessWorld http://www.bworldonline.com/BW060809/content.php?id=051 DESPITE KEEPING its bias for cutting interest rates, the central bank is already studying how it would reverse its current policy once the economy starts recovering. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said it is now being mindful of the impact of its accommodative policies — implemented since late last year — on inflation once economic conditions improve. "At the moment, our assessment is that the risks to inflation are low, and we have room to ease further; being mindful, however, that liquidity does not become excessive," BSP Gov. Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. told reporters via e-mail over the weekend. "[But] we have to be mindful that we have been easing since the fourth quarter of last year," he said, noting that interest rates would eventually have to be raised to make sure inflation pressures, expected later this year, do not disrupt economic activity. "We also need to look at the medium term because, if there is a need to change the stance of monetary policy at some point in the future, that change or shift should be done in smooth adjustment," he added. For the moment, however, he said monetary officials are still studying on how exactly to go about reversing its current policy. "It will be unwise for me to characterize and compare any change in stance we will make against previous policy actions because the inflation process is dynamic, interrelationships of macroeconomic variables are not static and our policy framework is forward looking," Mr. Tetangco said. "The speed and timing of any change in our policy stance will depend on many factors, most importantly on the outlook for inflation." Inflation pressures have, so far, remained subdued, despite the measures which should have been shoring up domestic demand and driving prices up. The rise in consumer prices has steadily eased since its peak of 12.5% in August of last year, when oil and commodity prices spiked in world markets. Inflation eased to its lowest in 18 months to 3.3% in May from 4.8% in April, as fuel and utility prices dropped below year-ago levels. The central bank has cut its policy rates by a total of 175 basis points since December last year, in a bid to reduce borrowing costs and encourage bank s to lend. This brought the benchmark borrowing rate to 4.25%, the lowest since May 1992 when the rate stood at 4.125%. Mr. Tetangco has also noted that cutting the BSP's overnight borrowing rate, or the premium paid to bank s that park their funds at the central bank , to a record low of 4% is in the "realm of possibility." The BSP cuts rates to discourage bank s from parking their funds at the central bank and instead, lend these to the public. The BSP has also cut local bank s' reserve requirements by two-percentage points and tripled its rediscounting facility to P60 billion for more direct infusion of liquidity into the economy. In a bid to provide an appropriate mix of monetary and fiscal measures to prod economic activity, BSP's steps have been complemented by an increase in government spending by way of a P330-billion economic stimulus package for the year. The P100-billion infrastructure component of that package, however, has yet to be spent. The Treasury bureau reported a 15.5% rise in total disbursements to 463.72 billion as of April, but the 0.4% gross domestic product growth recorded in the first quarter — which prompted some officials and analysts to warn that the economy was on the brink of recession — raised questions on how and where exactly that money was used. To be sure, over a quarter of those disbursements were allocated for debt interest payments. Source | |
Don't shit where you eat. | Top |
Last couple of days have been alright. Today was boring as hell though. All Sundays are. Always wake up late and usually hungover and just spend the day milling around being useless. On Friday I worked a whopping 5 hour shift then got off, and raced around town because I thought I needed to get up to East Lansing early so I could hunt some liquor stores. When I did some mapquest shit I realized Lansing was a lot smaller than I thought and there really weren't that many liquor stores that I hadn't hit already so I decided to forget about it. So picked up some food, then took out $100 from the bank since I forgot to pick up my paycheck, dropped off some packages of 40s at the post office, and went up to Lansing with the windows open and music blaring. Got up there with Peterson and Ryan and just sat around, went to old town to get some food, but ended up back in East Lansing and we ate at a bar with the slowest service ever. So we didn't leave a tip. Who cares. Got back and I bought 8 Big Bear 40s and 4 Crazy Stallions and a pack of Coors Light and we played beer pong out on the front porch. We decided to play a 50 cup vs. 50 cup game for some reason with three on each side. Took forever, then we played a little more 2 on 2 until we were sufficiently drunk enough to start shot-gunning millions of beers and spilling all over the place. I had fun. Woke up kinda hungover and feeling weak and powerless, and literally spent the entire day recooping on a chair watching first the Sandlot then Bad News Bears and American Wedding. Right before the hockey game started I decided to go back to South Lyon because I decided that another night of massive drinking wouldn't be worth waking up not in my bed in my own house and feeling shitty. So I got back here, but proceeded to be in a bad mood about something (I'm not sure what) and drank Big Bear 40s and got gloomy and stared at my computer. There you have it. Have to drive back to Lansing tomorrow for an "interview" with the State of MI Bar Association for my internship. Well, I don't think it's really an "interview" but I'm just going up there to see what I'd be doing and maybe discussing some type of payment but who knows. I need to work out the details to see if I still need to keep the Kroger job - and seeing how long it would be and shit like that. If I quit Kroger I'm gonna want to do it on the best terms possible so I can go back any time I'm out of work. Ha, just when I'm learning the register I find something better. This should have happened like 3 months ago when they hadn't taught me and I still hated every ounce of working there. Major drawback of this is that it'd be in Lansing. That'd be a long drive to make everyday. It's like 2 blocks away from the museum I interned at too. Right on the other side of the river. I'm seriously thinking about trying to go back to MSU for law school. (Considering I get the LSAT grades to do that) Source | |
red card; | Top |
i'm back from the bank and i've got a new, shiny red cimb atm card. i'm happy. there's only one thing left wearying my heart is that my driving license needs my full attention. i know i've been driving illegally so i should get the renewal process done before anything happens to me. but i already am in the middle of trouble. here it goes. supposedly my probationary driving license expired on 25th of May 2008 and i should get it renewed into a competent driving license right after the date. but what i did was i used it for another a year because it's still valid. what happened was i didn't get it renewed up until today and i know i'm going to answer lots of questions and give out lots of white lies to the officer. tomorrow. or the day after tomorrow. no, no. tomorrow. the day after tomorrow is too late. but i am already a year late so what's the different anyway? we'll see. Source | |
Probably Wouldn't Be This Way | Top |
I'm sitting in my room listening to Dave Matthews. I'm going with Brittany (a girl from work who's banging Shaddy but doesn't know I know, which is actually really fun for me) to see them in concert this week. I'm pretty excited, we're driving down on Tuesday and staying with her friends and visitting some girls that used to work at the Pub. I hear what used to be Diana's door opening and immediately felt anxious. It's so hard to get used to having another roommate. It was just Lydia, she works in the morning and had already gone to bed. It scares the shit out of me all the time when I come home and see the light on to Diana's old room because although I know she's gone, I'm used to dreading coming home to her being here too. So far Lydia has been great. Pretty chill even though our toilet and washer broke in the same day. As in, I got home from work and at 3 am was trying to get the toilet to stop flooding from the inside of the top part. Eventually, somehow I stuck a bottle of bubblebath in the back of it to hold up the lever thing and that worked. Who knew I was a plumber? Regardless, it's been going well. She didn't even hear Kaitlyn and I get home from the bar last night and subsequently drive to McDick's (bad judgement call) Apparently, Lydia thinks I'm the way I am with guys because I don't want anyone to get close to me and hurt me again. In reality, I think what's really going on is that I'm just sick of it all. Shaddy asked me tonight if I think it's a good idea that he get involved with Brittany. If he had asked me that question three of four years ago, I would have been excited, nosy, curious, happy, and encouraging. Tonight, I told him not to bother because shit never works out. I told him he might as well save himself the trouble and just bang her for fun. Near the end of my shift Jay asked me what I would do if the bank accidentally depositted a million dollars in my bank account. I thought about it for a second, and three or four years ago my answer would have been to for sure report it because that was the right thing to do. However, After four long years of dealing with the mundane realities of living on your own, I told her I would take it and peace. I told her that if I lived the rest of my life in a moral way (like with friends, guys, people in general and my actions) then I would report it. Alas, I do not and would be just as fucked in terms of karma either way. You only live once, and that's a sick story to tell. Afer all of this, Rob comes into the pub and sits at the bar. I tell him he looks silly and he gets offended. I don't give a shit. He's wearing his clothes from bartending, a grey hoodie and an apron. He tries to make small talk with me as he waits for Joe to come downstairs and I pretty much walk away from him as he's talking. I don't like to think of it as rude, so much as indicative of where he can shove it. My table is one of the last to leave and Matt tells me I can go anyways. As I'm leaving Rob asks me to go for a drink with him and Shaddy. Three or four months ago, I would have been down. "No way, I'm out!" is all I said as I waltzed out the door. It's like I'm a pissed-off sheep in a wolf's clothing. Source | |
i can't differentiate between wants and needs; | Top |
now that i'm home (my real home), i'm trying to find better things to do. i need to go to the bank tomorrow to settle my application on a new atm card. besides, i'm thinking to check out on my friends too. i haven't seen nadya for a very long time and i feel like i've been a bad friend to her, for some reasons. by the way, i've updated my flickr page . the last time it was updated was 2 or 3 months ago. i'm going to upload more photos on my photostream. most pictures taken using my sony, and some from LH's canon 1000d. i wanted to buy a new point and shoot camera (so it's easier for me to take it anywhere) as i've given away my nikon s210 to my sister (and it's pre-loved!). i wanted a film camera and also a digital one. man, too many wants and too many needs. i should know how to differentiate between wants and needs but i think it's kind of both. i want a new point and shoot camera and i need a new point and shoot camera. so what's the different? and i need a new tripod! i'm praying that the shop still has the National Geographic tripod i saw last month. Source | |
if you ain't got no money take your broke ass home; | Top |
i'm on my own computer and i love it. okay sebenarnya tidak ada mood untuk blog dalam bahasa inggeris sekarang ini. tidak ada masa untuk bercerita panjang lebar. tidak ada masa untuk semua ini. kalau dulu selalu dengar kawan-kawan mengeluh kehilangan beg duit, sekarang sendiri sudah rasa. satu sen pun tiada yang tinggal. terpaksa bergantung dengan duit khairiah dan LH. ala, bukannya kali pertama pun rasa tiada duit kan. at least di bank masih ada, cuma kad kena apply baru saja. malas lah mau pergi berurusan di bank . oh ya, tadi pergi tengok kamera kompak di karamunsing. rasanya mau angkat (beli) satu kamera kecil yang baru. tengok kamera canon. lama juga. mau test drive lah konon. as we were leaving, khairiah dengar pekerja tu cakap, "kalau tiada duit, tidak payah lah tengok-tengok". oh, nasib baik saya tidak dengar. kalau saya dengar, sure saya cakap, "saya ada SLR, tidak hairan pun semua ni. gaji ko pun tidak mampu mau afford sebiji kamera kompak." heh. nasib baik saya tidak dengar. mentang-mentang lah saya baru kehilangan beg duit. kejamnya kau pekerja kedai kamera di karamunsing. tapi rasanya ayat saya tu lagi kejam kot. Source | |
Deal of the week: GM (what else?) | Top |
In truth, there was no other contender for our new "Deal of the week" column. General Motors may be — or may have been — the quintessential American company, but its $173 billion collapse is providing plenty of work for English and European lawyers. So far, most European legal jobs have emerged from the sale of GM Europe's Opel brand to Magna, a Canadian car parts maker, which was agreed in principle over the weekend. As lead adviser to GM Europe, Clifford Chance has the top role outside of the US. A pan-European deal team led by Kolja von Bismarck in Frankfurt is steering the Opel sale and will represent GM Europe in discussions with its parent and its creditors. Not content with pole-position overseeing the restructuring of GM Corp in the US, Weil Gotshal & Manges is also making it voice heard in European matters. Mike Francies , head of the firm's London office, is leading a team advising GM Europe on what to do with its Vauxhall unit, Legal Week reported. A London-based team from Baker & McKenzie is working for GM Corp on the Opel deal with Gleiss Lutz acting for Magna. Early interest in Opel from Ripplewood Holdings, a US private equity group, provided a brief role for Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer , according to Legal Week . The €1.5 billion state-backed loan at the heart of the Opel deal created roles for Shearman & Sterling , which advised the German Federal Government, and Simmons & Simmons , which was called in to help the State of Hessia, where Opel is based. Gliess Lutz, Herbert Smith 's German ally, is among a handful of firms to have secured more than one role in the GM saga — it is the only one advising on both sides of the same transaction. In addition to advising Magna on its bid for Opel, Gleiss Lutz obtained permission from GM to continue an existing job handling competition issues for GM Europe, according to The Lawyer . Back in the US, a team of lawyers from Weil Gotshal, which has been preparing GM for bank ruptcy for weeks, is running the show. They include Stephen Karotkin , the man who closed a chapter on 101 years of American industrial history on Monday when he signed and submitted GM Corp's bank ruptcy filing. Also batting for Weil is legendary bank ruptcy lawyer Harvey Miller , now fully settled back in to his role as Weil's head of restructuring after rejoining the firm from a five year stint in investment bank ing. And there are plenty of other law firms involved: Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft , advising the US Government; Cravath Swaine & Moore , advising GM's board of directors; Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton , advising United Auto Workers, a trade union; and Bingham McCutcheon , advising Deutsche bank , GM Corp's third-largest creditor, which was owed $4.4 billion. That's a lot of lawyers, and an awful lot of hours being clocked up. Source | |
Former Norton Rose star Barbara Stephenson dies, aged 50 | Top |
Barbara Stephenson, a well-known former head of corporate finance at Norton Rose, died this week after a long period of illness. She was 50. A prolific dealmaker, Stephenson was respected across the City, advising on more than 50 IPOs and 100 takeovers during her 16 years as a partner at Norton Rose. She left the firm in 2005. Stephen Parish, chairman of Norton Rose, said: "Barbara will be remembered with great affection as a real character, who combined formidable legal expertise with a lively and bubbly personality." In addition to her role as head of corporate finance at the firm, Stephenson was heavily involved in graduate recruitment and served as president of Norton Roses's rugby club. She was previously married to Tim Shacklock, a City bank er. Source | |
Philippine May inflation down to 3.3%, 18-month low | Top |
Benjamin V. Buco, Jr. BusinessWorld http://www.bworldonline.com/BW060509/breakingnews.php CLICK HERE FOR NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE REPORT THE RISE in consumer prices eased further in May to 3.3% from 4.8% the previous month as the costs of all commodity items fell, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reported Friday. Core inflation, which excluded volatile food and energy items, also slowed down to just 4.4% from the previous month's 5%. The May inflation figure for the month was within the central bank forecast of 3.3% to 4.2%. The annual inflation in May 2008 settled at 9.5%. The NSO traced inflation's sustained downtrend to falling costs of food, oil and other commodity items. "The decline in the price of meat along with the slowdowns in the price increments of other commodity groups also contributed to the downtrend," the statistics agency said in a statement. Source | |
What recession? Philippine Central bank sees $6-B BPO earnings this year | Top |
LEE C. CHIPONGIAN Manila Bulletin http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/205623/bsp-sees-6b-bpo-earnings-year The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has raised its earnings forecast for the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector to $6 billion this year from $3-$4 billion. BSP monitors all foreign exchange (FX) flows into the country including remittances from overseas Filipinos, foreign direct investments, dollar reserves, among other FX indicators. BSP deputy governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said the BPOs remain one of the growth drivers of the economy because of its impact on the services sector. The central bank ' $6 billion projection, although higher than previous forecast, is lower than industry projection of $7.5-$8 billion for this year. The Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPAP) said revenues will likely grow by 30 percent from 2008's $6.06 billion. BPAP's original forecast was 40 percent but with the global economic slump and its impact on BPO demand, growth projections were reduced. Guinigundo said the continued shift to high-value services such as back office services, IT outsourcing and engineering/design process delivery, along with the increasing need to outsource non-core business activities of firms operating in advance economies, are expected to propel the growth of the BPO industry in 2009. The BSP has its own BPO survey called "Benchmark Survey of IT-Enabled Services" to monitor the FDI inflows. Since 2006, the BSP has been coordinating with various government agencies and private sector groups to institutionalize the regular conduct of the survey. Besides the trade department, the National Statistics Office and the National Statistical Coordination Board will also work with the BSP to consolidate numbers and definition of terms. The first BSP-led BPO survey was released in June 2007, but there is a two-year lag since the review only covered the period 2004 and 2005. Source | |
What recession? Philippine forex reserves rose to $39.5B in May | Top |
By Michelle Remo Philippine Daily Inquirer http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20090603-208659/Forex-reserves-rose-to-395B-in-May CLICK HERE FOR CENTRAL STATS MANILA, Philippines—The Philippines' Gross International Reserves—a measure of a country's ability to service obligations and engage in commercial transactions with the rest of the world—registered a new historic high in May, keeping the Philippines sufficiently liquid despite the lingering global economic crunch. According to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr., preliminary estimates by the BSP showed that the GIR further rose to $39.5 billion as of May, the month when overseas Filipinos usually send more remittances to their families to pay for their children's tuition. In April, Tetangco said the GIR stood at $39.3 billion, revised downward from the $39.5 billion reported earlier by the BSP. Although some expect remittances to contract steeply this year because of job cuts in advanced economies, the BSP said alternative labor markets abroad have opened—such as Canada, Australia, Qatar—and Filipinos were highly demanded by foreign employers. Contrary to most projections, the BSP expects total remittances this year to equal last year's $16.4 billion. The BSP also noted that the increase in deployment of Filipino workers was still in the double-digit level, citing data from the labor department. Tetangco said the gradual revival of market confidence in emerging economies like the Philippines was also helping increase the amount of foreign portfolio investments entering the country. He said higher inflows of "hot money" would beef up the country's balance of payments (BOP) and the GIR. Tetangco said increasing inflow of investments in securities and equities to the Philippines was partly a reason the peso has strengthened somewhat in May than the previous month. After hovering mostly in the 48 level, the peso moved into the 47-to-a-dollar territory last month. Developing nations like the Philippines have been urged to tap the international credit market to borrow and support their BOP and GIR as the lingering global turmoil is seen creating pressure on their liquidity positions. The BSP, however, said the Philippines need not borrow for BOP and GIR purposes as of the moment, noting that the country's foreign exchange liquidity was still relatively healthy. The GIR in May is estimated to cover at least six months' worth of imports. Although the GIR was rising steadily, the BSP has set a conservative forecast that it would settle at $37.5 billion by the end of 2009, the same as that in end-2008. Source | |
More puzzles behind Philippine GDP figure | Top |
Lending, liquidity still growing Jun Vallecera Business Mirror http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/top-news/11286-lending-liquidity-still-growing.html bank lending as well as money demand sustained continued double-digit growth rates in April, deepening the mystery behind why local output was a tepid 0.4 percent in the first three months and sharply lower than the consensus forecast growth of around 2.5 percent. Latest numbers from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) show bank loans expanding again by 13.4 percent in April while domestic liquidity, which measures money accessible by consumers and businesses, lifted by another 13.7 percent. Both are lagging indicators of the state of the economy, but they pertain to that now-perplexing period when economic activities in the country supposedly crawled to near-zero state. "The double-digit growth of outstanding loans of commercial bank s including [the BSP's borrowing] or reverse repurchase agreements [RRPs] was sustained at 13.4 percent in April, albeit a deceleration from the previous month's growth of 18.9 percent. "Net of RRP placements with the BSP bank lending grew at a faster pace of 19.0 percent in April from 17.8 percent in the previous month," BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said in a statement. The bulk of these loans were for production purposes, its volume rising faster during the month to 18.1 percent from 16.8 percent in March. Consumption loans, mainly credit cards, personal loans, housing loans and cars purchased on deferred-payment basis, also quickened to 13.3 percent from only 9 percent the previous month. Gross bank loans totaled P2.144 trillion but stood at P1.989 trillion on net (that is, excluding inter bank lending) basis. Loans extended to the following sectors, which comprised nearly half of total loans, contributed significantly to lending growth: agriculture, hunting, and forestry (which grew by 33.6 percent); real estate, renting and business services (by 36.8 percent); transportation, storage and communication (by 68.2 percent); electricity, gas and water (by 34.6 percent); and other community, social and personal services (by 37.3 percent). Loans to the manufacturing sector and financial intermediation activities, which accounted for more than a quarter of total loans, likewise contributed to lending growth, although marginally, at less than one percent each. Meanwhile bank lending to wholesale and retail trade; public administration and defense; education; construction; and mining and quarrying sectors registered contractions during the month. "These developments affirmed the BSP's commitment to help provide the appropriate macroeconomic conditions for continued credit expansion, while fulfilling its primary mandate of maintaining price stability," Tetangco said. He reported a slight deceleration in liquidity growth, also known as M3, from the 15.6 percent recorded in March to 13.7 percent in April. "The expansion in liquidity was fueled mainly by the continued rise in net foreign assets at 20.2 percent in April, which can be traced to the sustained growth in the net foreign assets of the BSP and the bank s at 19.8 percent and 22.5 percent, respectively. "Net foreign assets rose as the BSP continued to build up its international reserves and bank s settled a significant portion of their foreign liabilities," Tetangco said. He vowed to continue to monitor the level of money in the financial system to ensure an adequate supply of liquidity for the orderly functioning of the markets and to provide for the economy's growth requirements, while guarding against any potential build-up in price pressures. Source | |
What's wrong with the latest Philippine GDP data (II) | Top |
Be careful, Philippines Outside the Box John Mangun Business Mirror http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/11248-be-careful-philippines.html CLICK HERE FOR PART I. There are far too many people out there that are talking foolishly and, perhaps, dangerously about the Philippines. They are the ones who believe that any comment about the economy is some sort of secret language of politics. Positive analysis of the economy is obviously a cover for being pro-GMA. Likewise, any negative economic assessment is to be against GMA. The problem, the dangerous problem, is that when you start making economic decisions because of your "politics," the wrong decision is always the result. If you cannot have a clear picture of the economic situation because your politics clouds the view, then how can you make wise economic decisions? No one has been able to show me any substantial and pervasive evidence that the Philippine economy is in bad condition or even significantly worse condition than a year ago. My e-mail address is below when you have something more than words to back your viewpoint. And as I wrote two days ago, the latest economic data distort the reality. However, current government monetary policy from the Department of Finance and the central bank may be extremely dangerous and, in my opinion, is putting this economy at very great risk. This is a little complicated, but bear with me for a moment. From my view, current policy seems to be based on the assumption that the Philippine economy is going down and the USA economy is going up. If that is the case, then one proper policy would be to lower interest rates, as the government is now doing, in an effort to stimulate economic activity. Part of the problem with this is that it sacrifices the value of the peso. But that would not be a concern if one assumes that the US dollar is the currency of choice and is going to be strong in the long term, anyway. If the dollar is growing stronger because of a stronger US economy, there is little anyone can do except to accept a P50-to-$1 exchange rate and hope lower interest rates do spur the economy. But if the Philippine economy does not need any stimulation and if the US economy is not getting better, then the absolute last thing the Philippines needs is anything that would artificially encourage a weaker peso. Further, if the local economy is not going to be stimulated by lower interest rates because the economy is growing as fast as it can without unnecessary government intervention, then the weaker peso will actually make the economy worse. Anyone who says the US economy is getting better is a fool. The best that can be said is that the USA is not falling quite as fast as it was two months ago. But to say that a bottom has been reached is pure fantasy. But that is short-term. It is the long-term picture that predicts an economic catastrophe. As I wrote two months ago, the US government took the greatest economic gamble in history. It lowered interest rates to zero and pumped hundreds of billions of newly printed "fake" money into the economy, hoping that a quick rush of economic activity would offset the disastrous inflationary results. It is not working, as evidenced by the rapid drop in value of the dollar. Have you noticed oil prices lately? Oil is headed back to $75 (and local gasoline to P40) because of the very weak dollar. Higher oil prices will stop any slight improvement in the US economy. And the dollar is going much, much lower. In addition, US interest rates are going up as fast as oil prices. US government-debt interest rates are at a six-month high because the financial markets are convinced that current policy is going to create massive inflation in the year to come. The economic-stimulus program is not stimulating the economy, and it is creating the potential for historically high inflation rates, maybe 10 percent or more. That is why oil and commodity prices are going crazy. And as the dollar depreciates, the US stock market will soar as stocks become increasingly cheaper for foreign money to buy. The Philippine government is making the same gamble that the USA is making. It is betting that "stimulus" will offset any inflation risks. A weaker peso in the current global environment will send local fuel prices (and local inflation) skyward, as happened last year. It is betting that a US recovery and a weaker peso will increase our exports. If the government is wrong, the local economy will sink like a rock in deep water. What the government should do is appreciate the reality of the incredible strength of this economy given the global situation. The government should do all it can to strengthen the peso to true free-market levels to offset the decline of the dollar and resulting higher commodity prices. Gambling about and tying the Philippines to the US economy makes no sense and could create an economic disaster. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc. E-mail comments to mangun@email.com. Source | |
I hope you like Spaghetti... they serve it three times a day in Italian prisons... | Top |
Went to work today from 12:00 until 7:00... it was weird getting out that late and I didn't like it that much, but I work 10:00 - 6:30 tomorrow so I might as well get used to the idea. Looks like I'll be working later shifts as summer progresses. AKA kids out of school working there, and me (hopefully) being phazed into being a cashier. Or some other department. Or who knows. Checked my ring tender efficiency today and I was the lowest on the list. That's terrible but also hilarious. Because there were two pages of cashiers, and mine was the last one on the last page... and there was only name on the last page. Mine. Like my score was so bad that it had to be on a page by itself. Well, I'm pretty sure that was my first week cashiering... so oh well. Got home late and had to help my mom with dinner and a bunch of shit around the house since she broke her leg. E-mailed my mom's friend last night about setting up a date for our interview-type meeting but haven't heard back so I'll get the schedule on Thursday and give her another email... since the sooner I actually do this the better. I know myself. If I'm not doing something I'm miserable. If I have everything all planned out I'm usually fine. Got home and checked my bank statement and one of the shops I bought one of my records from apparently added a phantom charge in addition to the $18 they already charged for my 2x7 inch I ordered from England. So I emailed them... but I dunno how I'm gonna go about handling it. Gave them my order number... I dunno if I get fuct out of $18 I'll be pissed. Today was more or less boring. I remember telling myself that I needed to embrace boredom... and use it finally get around to the things that I otherwise wouldn't. I guess that's true. It's when I was cramped into single-dorm city with no other human beings that I made millions of songs and drew tons of pictures... Source | |
Holiday. | Top |
The life of the 23 year old teenager continues as I spend an entire Sunday doing jack shit. Part of the problem is that I am 23 living in my parents basement with no solid future. And another part of the problem is that I spend literally every second that I'm here obsessing over that fact. But I might as well get used to it. My college education is not even close to over. I guess I can put off being an "adult" for the time being. So it's finally May. It feels good that it's summer. But for me summer has always been the ultimate change-up in my schedule. Done with school, moving home. Glad to be in the basement all hours of the day with nothing really to worry about. But I've been stuck in the basement for like 9 months now. It was just kinda depressing to graduate from what I thought was a decent program to find out I have the same Poly Sci degree as like 200,000 other community college assholes. So it's time for Law School. Library City. Maybe I'll get into Michigan State. Maybe I won't. Maybe I'll stay in MI. Maybe I won't. Maybe I'll get a good score on the LSAT. Maybe I won't. Hopefully I will. What a fun period in my life. I live in a town where I know no one. I work with children in a summer job I had two years ago. I drive around on the weekend and rent movies and drink like 6 beers and fall asleep. I almost miss the college town because it was always busy. But then again I hate anything busy and noisy. So there you have it. I hate anything current. I want to go to law school. But I'll get to law school and hate it and yearn for the old days of me working in grocery store city. And I'll fondly remember undergrad. Which I am doing right now. When I was in middle school I wanted high school. When I was in high school I wanted college. When I was in college I wanted high school. And now that I'm done with college I want college back. And now I want law school. But I have to wake up early tomorrow and work and my fucking stomach hurts. It's nice having a little money in the bank though. Just a couple thousand dollars that I have nothing to spend on. I mowed the grass for the first time this year yesterday and today. Two seconds after I started I hit a root and snapped the blade off in the middle. Had to put a new one on, and canvassed the yard looking for like two feet of steel. Took forever to find since it was almost completely burried in dirt. And then today I got the fucking thing stuck in mud like 400 feet deep on the other side of the driveway. Had to pull it out with the Yukon and a ten thousand pound piece of chain. Fuckin hate Sundays. Pointless joyless days. Something about the physical properties of Sunday depresses me. The air's different or something. Source | |
Innoculated City | Top |
Well. I guess I've survived winter. Every summer I forget how draining and miserable the weather is. Every winter I remember and hate my life for about 5 straight months. Sitting here in chair city drinking my one Busch beer before bed. The quadruple 'B' I woke up and looked outside and it was raining and dreary, so I went back to bed for an hour and had a stupid dream. I don't really even remember much about it. But enough to attempt to write it down. I was in the house and it was downpouring outside. I was with this fat kid who I don't know. I don't even know why I'm writing this down since nothing happened except me running around outside in an attempt to escape from some dudes breaking into the house in the pouring rain. Sprinting through the woods outside coming up to my neighbors house - which was now a shack with a hillbilly family sitting outside in lawn chairs with a small child. It sucked, who cares. Anyway. I spent all of today lounging in the basement. Watching TV. Playing video games. Nothing new. Doing what I normally do on any day that I don't have to work. Sit for hours and think about my life and what the fuck I'm doing with my future. Law School. There's one answer I guess. But that just opens up an entirely new category of shit that I need to get together before I even start APPLYING to schools I'm interested in. And then getting into Law School is a whole big issue of me being smart and motivated enough. Finding letters of recommendation. Getting experience. And the LSAT. First time I've been legit "worried" this much about school related shit. I'd always been more or less certain that I'd go to Michigan State. So not know what the hell I'm gonna do now is different and I don't like it. I'm telling myself that I can look backward onto this "period of uncertainty" in the future and almost think fondly of it... since that's kind of how I look back at my wimpy angst-full teenage years. But that all doesn't change the fact that I have zero palpable future right now. Part of me wants to get into Michigan State. But part of me doesn't. Or get in, but go somewhere else. I kind of want to go to some other state. Start everything new. Meet new people. Make drastic life changes or some shit like that. I dunno. I actually feel better than I did a few months ago, as I at least have some vague "game plan" to follow. No. I definately feel better. I've got a list that I keep by my computer in a notebook. I always liked lists. I used to keep one my first two years at MSU with all the shit that I needed to for the day or week. And it worked. And then I threw lists into the trash. Now the lists back. Like they say you feel better when you can cross shit off lists. I've got "e-mail counselor my updated resume" crossed off. And I've got a bunch of simple shit on there. Like "go to post office" "Deposit money in the bank " "Cash my tax return checks" And of course there are some awesome ones like "Get a better job" Or my personal favorite... just "Law School" At least it's spring. It's raining outside instead of snowing. I have a dim vision of the future. I'm no longer drunkenly contemplated joining the army just to have something to do and some type of plan for the next four years. Maybe I'm just putting off the future with more school. But fuck it. Everyone's "wishing they went back to school" Everyone's doing that. I think if I had a legit job and I could hold down bank then my chances of law school would be way lower. The entrenched in routine Luke would take over command, and I'd stay there for the rest of my life. Middle Management City or something. And to be completely honest this degree kinda sucks on its own. Law school, you jezebels. I decide my future on my livejournal entries. Who else does that? No one. I weigh pros and cons as I type these out. I drink my one beer before my before-bed cigarette and listen to music and map out my life. Kinda feels good having "goals" and shit again. Lets bring back the pictures that tie all my entires together. This is what I look like as I contemplate my future. Source | |
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