The latest from Полнотекстовые фиды для блогофермеров
- bank
- The guru guide to your IT career
- Durable Goods Orders Up in May
- No longer healthy or wealthy
- John Chow dot Com
- The Dollar Relationship with Oil Prices
- Huntsman Settles Court Case
- More on TIPS
| bank | Top |
| Selling away just 4 items! =) All brand New and still in packaging. No trades please . <3 PLEASE READ BEFORE PROCEEDING. ♥Terms & Conditions) Goods are not exchangeable nor refundable No Trades please ♥Payment Preferably meet ups transfers (im using UOB) ♥Shipping We are not responsible for any lost mails by normal postage ♥Email papermoolah@gmail.com All Items are brand new in packaging. Selling away some clothing because I bought the wrong size. selling away $20.69 Bust 95cm, Length 70cm, Sleeve 60cm, Shoulder 40cm Besta all pass-1 computerized dictionary. (hanyu Pinyin dictionary, brand new in packaging) Selling @ $30 ( retail price $32) Health Club Shapetronic Tone & Massage Pad (Definitely Worth the buy) Brand new without packaging. Running on two tripple A batteries. selling @ $25 feedback link: papermoolah.livejournal.com/3693.html (1+/0-) Thank you! <3 Source | |
| The guru guide to your IT career | Top |
| Do you want to know what it takes to have a successful career in IT and computing ? We've asked the experts for their tips, at each stage of the process. 1. School Behind every successful IT guru, from Bill Gates to Mark Zuckerberg, you'll find years of experience. For many, that experience starts when they are still at school, tinkering with technology in their spare time. That's because every successful career starts with passion. If you genuinely love what you do enough for it to be your all-consuming hobby, then you'll have the energy and enthusiasm to handle the pressure and challenges ahead. 2. University When it comes to your university IT course , it's important to learn more than just the technical skills you need to be a programmer, web designer, network planner or computer support technician. 'Soft' skills such as communication, leadership and business awareness are just as important when it comes to landing a job. Gareth is a Senior Software Developer for a major international bank . He says that when he looks for a new person to join his team, team fit is his number one priority. "That tends to mean someone who's got the right balance of communication and interpersonal skills, and a willingness to learn new things while also being able to argue a different point of view." " Technical qualifications generally land the interview in the first place," he admits, "but practical on-the-job experience – and the ability to convey that knowledge – will always outweigh qualifications for me." So while you're at university, take the opportunity to improve your personal skills through group activities, presentations and internships. The VP of Development at salesforce.com, Todd McKinnon, confirms the importance of this. "Communication is the number one non-IT skill that IT professionals need today. At all levels, at every area of the IT department, with every project, across teams." Communication goes both ways of course. Steve Lipner, Senior Director of Security Engineering Strategy at Microsoft, says "listening to the customer(s) and understanding the real problem you need to solve" is the most important non-IT skill you can have. "When I've done that successfully, I've succeeded," he admits. "When I've lost sight of that rule, it hasn't been pretty." 3. Further study No matter what area of IT you're interested in, it is probably changing more rapidly than just about any other industry. So it's important to keep up-to-date with the latest technical skills and research. Post-graduate study is one way to do this – and is also a good way to specialise in your chosen field. Choose your post-graduate university for its knowledge and resources in your chosen field. That will let you learn from industry experts, and use the latest technology while you're on-campus. Last year Edith Cowan University , in Perth, Australia, opened a new Unified Communications Laboratory. The new lab allows networking students to get hands-on experience managing real Voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) technology. By partnering with Nortel Networks, the School of Computer and Information Science provides a realistic work environment for students. Associate Professor Craig Valli predicts demand for skilled graduates in this area will soon outweigh supply. 4. Careers guidance While you're studying , make the most of your school's career counselling support. Ideally you should take on an internship at some point in your studies. Mat Henson is studying a BSc at the University of Derby in England, specialising in Computer Games programming. Derby has one of the few UK computing departments that offers this course, and its purpose-built dedicated Microsoft and Sony games labs are at the cutting-edge of the industry. Computer games placements are highly competitive, so to stand out from the crowd Mat created a short video that showed his work, and released it on YouTube. Within a week he had three interviews. "I've learned so much," says Mat of his placement with a London computer games company. "I've worked on three major projects, ranging from a small simulation to an educational game about nanotechnology. I've now had experience in public relations, programming, art, management, very tight deadlines and advertising. Now I'm well ahead of the competition." 5. Your first job So you've graduated and now you've landed your first job in the IT industry. Congratulations! Now the work really begins. Make sure you take the time to get to know how your new company works, what its customers really want and what drives its profitability. Robert Worrall, CIO at Sun Microsystems, says he tells new staffers "to make an effort to spend time in all IT disciplines – operations, development, support, engineering and finance." The best career advice he ever received? "Learn the business first, only then apply technology to solve the problem." The learning hasn't stopped yet. Your company is not responsible for your career. You are. So stay ahead of everyone else by keeping your skills up to date. Try out new technology in your spare time – and don't be afraid to make mistakes. Todd McKinnon uses Google alerts to stay on top of industry trends. "I read different blogs and websites, and O'Reilly books to familiarize myself with new technologies." To find out how you can kick-start your IT career with international study in IT and computing , talk with one of our student counsellors . Good luck! Source | |
| Durable Goods Orders Up in May | Top |
| This is good news for the polyurethane market, as there is a lot of urethane that goes into durables. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Jumped in May (Update1) Share | Email | Print | A A A By Shobhana Chandra June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for American-made durable goods unexpectedly jumped in May, adding to signs that the economic slump is easing. The 1.8 percent gain in bookings for items meant to last several years matched the previous month's increase, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Economists projected orders would drop 0.9 percent, according to the median of 75 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy is projected to return to growth in the second half of the year, and sustained gains in consumer spending may encourage businesses to boost investment and production after having slashed inventories earlier this year. Still, economists anticipate that rising unemployment and tight credit will temper the recovery. "New orders are beginning to stabilize," Michael Moran , chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, said before the report. "The economy seems to be on course for a gradual turn." Treasuries tumbled and stock-index futures rose after the report. Benchmark 10-year note yields advanced to 3.68 percent at 8:33 a.m. in New York from 3.62 percent late yesterday. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index gained 1 percent to 898.80. Economists' Estimates The range of estimates of economists surveyed ran from a decline of 3.9 percent to a gain of 1 percent. Commerce revised the April gain from a previously reported 1.9 percent increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders climbed 1.1 percent after a 0.4 percent rise. Demand for commercial aircraft, which is often volatile, surged 68 percent in May after declining 1.4 percent the prior month. The jump propelled orders for transportation equipment up 3.6 percent, even as auto bookings slumped. Boeing Co., the world's second-largest commercial-jet builder, received 20 orders in May, up from 17 a month earlier. Chicago-based Boeing said it is sticking to its 2009 delivery projections even as cancellations have almost outweighed new orders this year and carriers have deferred dozens of planes. Automobile orders dropped 8.1 percent after a 1.2 percent increase the prior month, today's report showed. Auto Industry Auto shutdowns linked to the bank ruptcies of Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. may depress factory orders in the near term. Chrysler this month said that it resumed production at a Detroit plant, after idling all its factories on May 1 while it reorganized. GM said it'll extend downtime at units in Texas and Kentucky while adding a shift at a Michigan facility. Orders excluding defense equipment increased 1.4 percent and bookings for military gear gained 7.4 percent. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, jumped 4.8 percent, the most since September 2004. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, rose 0.3 percent after dropping 2.7 percent. Orders for computers and related products jumped 9.4 percent. Machinery demand gained 7.7 percent, the most in more than a year. General Electric Co., whose businesses span power-plant turbines, jet engines and private-label credit cards, is among the companies not seeing a marked improvement in demand yet. "I am not particularly of the green shoots group yet," GE Vice Chairman John Rice said this month in Atlanta, referring to a phrase used by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that described signs of a nascent recovery. "I have not seen it in our order patterns yet." Manufacturers also face headwinds from overseas as economies contract worldwide. The World bank this week said the global recession will be deeper than it predicted in March, with the world economy expected to shrink 2.9 percent this year. The bank also trimmed the growth forecast for 2010. To contact the report on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: June 24, 2009 08:40 EDT http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apkAeuPJBaJw Source | |
| No longer healthy or wealthy | Top |
| A recent article about the former NFL football quarterback Bernie Kosar's bank ruptcy is an interesting observation on the flip side of the glamor and glory of professional athletics. Kosar is portrayed as a man racked with physical and financial hardship after retirement from the NFL and more recently falling victim, like many, to the global downturn. There are several take away points from the article, as I see it. Contact sports take their toll. If not in the short term, than certainly in the long term. A few years back I was considering taking up a martial art with a sparring component as a way to keep in shape. Ironically I was deterred by someone doing the martial art. To paraphrase him - if you really want to be in great shape years down the line, do yoga. He was a rock, but suffered shoulder pain at a young age and knew it would probably haunt him later in life. Anyone can get themselves into financial trouble, even multimillionaires like Kosar. The article outlines his financial downfall. From poor business decisions to over generosity, he didn't have a handle on his finances. Supporting charity to the point of becoming a recipient of it hardly makes sense. Funnily, Kosar states that he will make more money in the future, but his prime earning years are far behind. Not too long ago I had a fair amount of money in the bank and felt that I was young enough not to worry - I'll make more money in the future. And while I still believe this, my earnings are not currently what I assumed they would be. When times are good and money is coming in people are often overly optimistic about the future. Save something for a rainy day. The media rarely focuses attention on these types of stories. There are many broke and busted celebrities, but unless they commit a crime, we don't hear about them. There is warped perception that the media creates of the eternally healthy and wealthy celebrity. Everyone ages and faces difficulties. Although I feel sorry for the guy, it is oddly reassuring that life happens to everyone, even the famous. Hopefully we can learn from Bernie and keep ourselves healthy and wealthy throughout all the seasons of life. -Matt Source | |
| John Chow dot Com | Top |
| John Chow dot Com How I Make $40,000 a Month From a Blog Posted: 23 Jun 2009 11:13 PM PDT Here’s a video of my presentation from last night’s Vancouver Business, Marketing and Entrepreneur meetup . My topic was how I make $40,000 a month from a blog and I had a sold out house. It wasn’t the original topic I had planned to speak on but since the organizer had put that up on the meetup site, I was pretty much stuck with it. The video contain information that I have never written about before – it revealed my blog business model. As you can read from the reviews , the information was extremely well received and everyone thought it was well worth the price of admission. And you’re going to get it for free! The entire presentation was over 1.5 hours long. I edited it down to an hour by taking out the Q&A at the end. I recommend you grab a drink, a bite to eat and pull up a chair because you’re going to want to watch this from beginning to end. Find out what I’m doing right now by following me on Twitter . This Post Was Brought To You By Best Credit Card Offers Get up to $250 or even FREE round-trip plane tickets by signing up for hot credit card offers and .bank deals! The Winner of the OnlineRadioStations.com Contest Posted: 23 Jun 2009 03:15 PM PDT Back in April, I held a two month long contest with OnlineRadioStations.com to give away up to $4,000 cash. You can see the contest post here . I thought this contest was over and Online Radio Station had drawn the winner and given away the money. However, Online Radio Station thought it was me who would draw the winner. As a result of this communication error, no winner was drawn. This oversight will corrected this Saturday when I draw the winner of cash during Dot Com Pho. The rules state the winner would win $2,000 if we received less than 200 entries and $4,000 if there were more than 200. We didn’t hit 200 entries so the winner will be receiving $2,000. If this is the first time you heard of this contest, then I’ll keep it open for you to enter until this Friday. On Saturday, I’ll draw the winner and that person will win $2,000 CASH (or $4,000 if we break 200 entries). Good luck and don’t spend the money all in one place! Win Cash Money with OnlineRadioStations.com Find out what I’m doing right now by following me on Twitter . This Post Was Brought To You By Have a Blog? Offer $20 BidVertiser Coupon of Free Clicks to your Readers – Simply signup as our referral and you will get a unique link which will give your visitors $20 in free clicks! And you will also get paid for it! Isn't that a WOW? Still Selling SiteWide Links? That Means You Are Losing LOTS OF MONEY! Replace your sitewide links by TNX.net code and generate 10x times more income by selling different links from every single page of your website or blog! You are subscribed to email updates from John Chow dot Com To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now . Email delivery powered by Google Inbox too full? Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 Source | |
| The Dollar Relationship with Oil Prices | Top |
| There is a great quote in this article--the high price of oil is directly related to the strength of the dollar. Urethane raw material costs are directly related to the price of a barrel of crude. A strong dollar is key to the U.S. economy, and the urethane economy. It increases our buying power. A strong dollar is related to the strength of our economy and the perception of future inflation of the currency. I think we're borrowing (and spending) too much today, which will lead to inflation and a weaker dollar. Anyway, enough of that, here's the quote and then the article: "The fundamentals don't seem to matter," said Bill O'Grady , the chief markets strategist at St. Louis-based Confluence Investment Management LLC, an investment advisory and management firm. "I can tell you what the oil market is going to do by just looking at the currency market." U.S. Markets Wrap: Dollar Drops Most in 6 Weeks; Oil, Gold Rise Share | Email | Print | A A A By Oliver Biggadike and Margot Habiby June 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell by the most in six weeks against the euro, sending oil, gasoline, gold and sugar higher, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will temper expectations for an interest-rate increase this year. Stocks and Treasuries gained. Futures traders added to bets that Federal Open Market Committee will keep the benchmark rate close to zero for the rest of this year to support a return to economic growth. The greenback extended declines as European Central bank council member Axel Weber said policy makers have already used up their room to cut borrowing costs, adding to speculation the euro- area's benchmark rate will stay higher than the rate in the U.S. "The market's a little worried about the FOMC," said Meg Browne, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. "They're asking the FOMC to provide them with conflicting views. One is to indicate when they're exiting quantitative easing, but they're also looking for the Fed to extend the Treasury purchases." The U.S. currency weakened as much as 1.75 percent to $1.4108 per euro, the most since May 8. It traded at $1.4077 at 3:39 p.m. in New York, from $1.3865 yesterday. The dollar dropped 0.7 percent to 95.22 yen, the third day of declines. Japan's currency depreciated 0.9 percent to 134.07 per euro. The Fed will probably keep its interest-rate target for overnight loans between bank s close to zero and continue its $300 billion program of Treasury purchases, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 58 economists before tomorrow's statement. Traders cut bets the Fed will raise interest rates by at least a quarter-percentage point to 0.5 percent by December, lowering the odds to 42 percent from 49 percent a week ago. Treasuries Gain Treasuries gained for a third day as the government's sale of $40 billion of two-year notes drew higher-than-forecast demand and speculation about the Fed. The 10-year note yield fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 3.65 percent at 2:28 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The two-year note's yield declined four basis points to 1.10 percent. Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel, gasoline climbed for the first time in five days and gold and silver increased, as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodity futures as an alternative investment. "The fundamentals don't seem to matter," said Bill O'Grady , the chief markets strategist at St. Louis-based Confluence Investment Management LLC, an investment advisory and management firm. "I can tell you what the oil market is going to do by just looking at the currency market." Oil Rises Crude oil for August delivery climbed $1.74, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $69.24 a barrel at 2:42 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures, up 55 percent this year, have declined 5.4 percent from a seven-month high of $73.23 reached on June 11. Gasoline for July delivery increased 3.35 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $1.8932 a gallon in New York. Gold futures for August delivery rose $3.30, or 0.4 percent, to $924.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division. The contract earlier fell as much as 0.8 percent to the lowest since May 12. Bullion for immediate delivery in London advanced $3.35, or 0.4 percent, to $926.05 an ounce at 7:25 p.m. local time. Silver futures for July delivery rose 14 cents, or 1 percent, to $13.845 an ounce in New York. Silver for immediate delivery rose 14.5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $13.88 an ounce at 7:24 p.m. in London. Sugar jumped to the highest in almost three years on rising signs that a production deficit may extend into a second year and as the dollar weakened. Raw-sugar futures for October delivery rose 0.74 cent, or 4.6 percent, to 16.98 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price earlier reached 17 cents, the highest for a most-active contract since July 2006. Equities Increase U.S. stocks rose as higher oil and metal prices lifted commodity shares and the Treasury auction eased concern that record government borrowing will boost interest rates. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.2 percent to 895.10 at 4:16 p.m. in New York, rebounding from its steepest loss in two months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 16.10 points, or 0.2 percent, to 8,322.91. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.27 points to 1,764.92. Today's U.S. stock trading fell to 8.12 billion shares, among the lowest volume days of this year and 25 percent lower than the 2009 average of 10.9 billion tocks changing hands. To contact the reporters on this story: Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net ; Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: June 23, 2009 17:16 EDT http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aX.tJvt6IR00 Source | |
| Huntsman Settles Court Case | Top |
| Huntsman bank s Reach Settlement Credit Suisse, Deustche bank to Pay Huntsman $1.7 Billion in Cash and Financing By PETER LATTMAN A week into a Texas state court trial, Huntsman Corp. has settled its lawsuit against a pair of European bank s for $1.7 billion in cash and financing, a win in the chemicals maker's fight to recover damages for a busted buyout by private-equity firm Apollo Management LP. Credit Suisse Group AG and Deutsche bank AG will pay Huntsman $632 million in cash. The bank s will also provide Huntsman with $1.1 billion in loans at a time when it is difficult to borrow money from bank s. Bloomberg News/Landov The settlment payment is a windfall for Huntsman. Above, the Huntsman facility in Jefferson County, Texas. Huntsman had sought $4.65 billion in damages, accusing the investment bank s of plotting to scuttle an acquisition by Hexion Specialty Chemicals, a company owned by Apollo. The bank s had said they didn't provide financing for the deal because they didn't think a combined Hexion-Huntsman would be solvent, a requirement under the financing commitment letter. "I believe this settlement reflects those efforts and the integrity with which our company conducts its business," said Huntsman founder Jon Huntsman. "We will put these proceeds to good use." The bank s said in a statement that "while we believe strongly in the merits of our case, we felt it was in our best interests to resolve the litigation." The case was being closely watched on Wall Street as a test of how a Texas state court jury viewed large bank s at a time when their reputations have been hurt by the financial crisis. It's also among the last of a group of suits that emerged two years ago when the credit markets turned and lenders became fearful of funding deals and tried to alter the terms of their commitments. Apollo's Hexion had agreed in July 2007 to buy Huntsman in a deal 100% funded by $15.4 billion of newly issued debt. It collapsed about a year later after Apollo asked a Delaware court to rescind it, also arguing that a combined company would be insolvent. A Delaware judge ruled against Apollo and ordered it to try to close the deal. Huntsman then sued the bank s in Texas, accusing them of failing to fund the deal because they sought to avoid billions of dollars in loan losses. The bank s argued they didn't provide the financing because they thought Hexion-Huntsman was insolvent, which gave them an out under the commitment letter. Last December, Huntsman reached a $1 billion settlement with Apollo. That pact included a $325 million payment from the bank s, as well as a $250 million investment in Huntsman by Apollo in exchange for a 10-year convertible note that pays a 7% coupon. Ironically, Apollo, whose conduct had been sharply criticized by the Delaware court, comes out a winner with this result. Its December settlement was far less than the $3 billion Huntsman had sought, but it came at a moment when the company needed cash. Apollo also benefits from the bank 's settlement payment because it now has an investment in Huntsman. The bank 's settlment payment is a windfall for Huntsman, which has been suffering from the global downturn in the chemical sector. The cash portion of the settlement represents roughly 40% of Huntsman's stock market capitalization. The $1.1 billion in financing provided by the bank s will help pay down existing Huntsman debt and push out maturities. The company's earliest meaningful maturity now comes due in 2012. Huntsman had had substantial indebtedness due next year. The bank s will charge Huntsman the London inter bank offered rate, of Libor, plus 2.25% on a $500 million senior secured loan due in 2016; and 5.5% on a $600 million unsecured note also due in 2016. "These terms are less expensive than what we've been seeing in the market and what Huntsman would likely have to pay in a new transaction," said Steven Miller, a loan analyst at Standard & Poor's LCD, a fixed-income data provider. Write to Peter Lattman at peter.lattman@wsj.com http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124577227955842263.html Source | |
| More on TIPS | Top |
| TIPS Gain in Market's Worst Year; Validation of Pimco (Update3) Share | Email | Print | A A A By Daniel Kruger June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Even the biggest drop in consumer prices in six decades can't dissuade the world's biggest bond investors from buying protection from inflation. A day after the Labor Department said on June 18 that its consumer price index fell 1.3 percent in the year ended in May, the most since 1950, BlackRock Inc. issued a special report on why investors should purchase Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Bill Gross , manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., calls TIPS attractive and says Treasuries are among the worst places to invest. "The deflation scare has pretty much been taken out of the market," said Kenneth Volpert , who oversees $180 billion as head of taxable fixed-income at Vanguard Group Inc. in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. "The inflation scare has not been priced in yet, and we think that's still to come." TIPS are the only long-term U.S. government debt to post gains in what is the worst year for U.S. securities since at least 1978. TIPS have returned 2.98 percent since December, including reinvested interest, while Merrill Lynch & Co.'s U.S. Treasury Master index slumped 5.7 percent. What has BlackRock, Pimco and Vanguard, which together oversee more than $1.5 trillion in bonds, concerned is the $12.8 trillion that the U.S. government and Federal Reserve agreed to lend, spend or guarantee to thaw frozen credit markets and snap the longest U.S. economic slump since the 1930s. Expanding Deficit The Treasury is scheduled to auction a combined $104 billion of two-year, five-year and seven-year securities this week. That's $3 billion more than when the government last sold notes of similar maturities, and the most since the U.S. began sales of this combination of maturities in February. The U.S. may sell a record $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts President Barack Obama 's spending plan will expand the deficit this year to about four times the previous record, and cause a $1.38 trillion gap between what the governments spends and what it generates in revenue in fiscal 2010 starting Oct. 1. Slowing spending will be harder than providing stimulus, Volpert said. Between mid-1974 and mid-1976, the budget deficit went from 0.1 percent of gross domestic product to 4.5 percent as the government boosted spending to pull the economy of a recession. In the following three years, the inflation rate accelerated to 13.3 percent from 4.9 percent. After the spending boom of the early 1980s, inflation quickened to 5.4 percent in 1989 from 1.1 percent in 1986. Inflation is bad for bonds because it erodes the value of fixed payments. 'Fear of Inflation' "There's definitely fear of inflation because the markets are starting to recognize the government's activities in printing money and spending do have an effect," said Barr Segal , a managing director at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc., which holds $90 billion in fixed-income assets. Segal has sold Treasuries, and bought TIPS. TIPS pay interest on a principal amount that rises or falls based on the consumer price index. Inflation-protected bonds due in 10 years yield 1.85 percentage points less than Treasuries. That so-called breakeven rate represents traders' expectations for the rate of inflation over the life of the bonds and is up from 0.04 percent in November. 'This Is Overdone' The 8.68 percentage points difference in returns this year, as measured by Merrill Lynch index data, is the most since the Treasury started selling TIPS in 1997. U.S. inflation-protected debt lost 1.1 percent last year while the 10-year note gained 20 percent as investors bought the most easily traded securities when credit markets froze and the global economy went into recession. Instead of forecasting runaway inflation, TIPS may reflect that the economy is no longer in jeopardy of deflation, or a persistent decline in consumer prices that can damp investment. "I'm in the camp that says this is overdone," said Wan- Chong Kung, who helps oversee $89 billion in Minneapolis at FAF Advisors, the asset-management arm of U.S. Bancorp. "What we see is a really healthy rise in inflation premium with not much realized inflation behind it. At some point you have to have realized inflation be part of the story to continue to see breakevens perform from here." Kung bought Treasuries expecting that the breakeven spread will narrow and as yields on government debt reached "relatively attractive levels." Asset Collapse The collapse of assets ranging from real estate to stocks has economists forecasting that inflation won't return to historical averages anytime soon. The median estimate of 59 forecasters is for consumer prices to increase at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in 2010, after falling 0.5 percent this year, according to survey conducted in June by Bloomberg. Macy's Inc. cut prices to clear stockpiles. Aeropostale Inc. was offering 20 percent off women's dresses earlier this month. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. was giving 50 percent off purchases of a second graphic t-shirt. Breakeven rates on 10-year TIPS are 0.29 basis points, or 0.29 percentage point, lower than the past decade's 2.14 percent average. BlackRock calls them a bargain. In its report titled "Uncertainty Today, Inflation Tomorrow: Why TIPS, Why Now?" the New York-based firm said the amount of inflation priced into the market over the next two decades is "far below" the historical average of about 3 percent. 'Still Opportunity' "They're not as cheap as they were, but long-term there's still opportunity in them," Brian Weinstein , who manages BlackRock's $9 billion TIPS fund, said in a June 19 interview. "Breakevens could keep going higher." | |
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| Faith in Wells Fargo By Jim Cramer RealMoney Columnist 6/19/2009 3:24 PM EDT bank s are making enormous amounts of money. They make it every day because the amount they are paying you is now invisible, but their costs are going down because most of them have made mergers and are fantastic in taking costs -- plus, the lower rates have brought in a huge amount of business. But nobody believes because they are supposed to have so many bad loans on the books. The bank that is the least trusted at this point is the one that I trust the most: Wells Fargo (WFC) . I trust it because before the Wachovia merger, the company had very few bad loans and had been an originator and then a seller of subprime. I know it looks like the bank has a huge amount of subprime, but in a fantastic interview yesterday with the CharlotteObserver.com, CEO John Stumpf answered a question about his huge subprime exposure, and it made me feel pretty terrific: The subprime loans that we made -- there are about $25 billion on our balance sheet -- were made in a subsidiary company called Wells Fargo Financial. This is a very different kind of subprime loan. It's a debt-consolidation product. The customer already owns her home, but she might have a lot of credit card debt, a debt on an auto, a debt with a hospital. We would consolidate all that debt and put it on her house. That's the kind of subprime loans we put on the books. In fact, those loans are performing very, very well -- well above the industry average because they are fully underwritten, there's no broker involved, full appraisals, full income verification. Does anyone believe that besides me? If they do, then the negatives switch to the terrible Wachovia loans. Just awful, right? The pick-and-pay outrage, the ticking time bomb. Those loans are going to wreck Wells Fargo's capital, no? Here's Stumpf again: We typically have the highest capital ratios in the industry. The reason that we have less Tier 1 common capital is because we wrote off nearly $40 billion in loans when we bought Wachovia to put the losses behind us. We have great earnings power. We will earn that capital back quickly. Lying again? Well, consider that Bob Steel, the discredited CEO of Wachovia but still at least somewhat worthy of judging the situation, figured that there were only about a fraction of bad loans within the bank . In fact, this $40 billion figure presumes gigantic losses, much bigger than I think possible unless unemployment goes well above where it is right now and housing continues to decline through 40% reductions. For the longest time, any number about housing had been too positive, but that kind of writedown may encompass even the most negative projections if we have house price stabilization, as I believe we have. In a house price stabilization situation, the risks of the walk-away and the risks of foreclosure diminish rapidly because there's no reward to jumping to a rental, particularly if you refinance. Of course, again, unemployment is a wild card, which is why it is so important to monitor. Remember, Wells Fargo doesn't need to have a recovery in its Other Real Estate-Owned portfolio to get out of this situation quickly and repay TARP, which the company hates. That's because of the "make money every day" part of bank ing that comes from the spread between what they pay you and what they lend plus an exceptional cross-selling business. Citigroup (C) was supposed to be the cross-selling supermarket. In truth, it was a failure because of execution, because of tactics, not strategy. Wells Fargo cross-sells every day. Oh, and let me give you one more wild card. Wachovia has a pretty darn good investment bank ing business at a time when investment bank ing is in major demand. Doesn't hurt, can help. Much of this chatter is out there, but little of it is believed. It is as if Richard Kovacevich, the chairman, who lived and thrived through the 1989/1991 meltdown, John Stumpf, a seasoned bank ing pro, and Howard Atkins, the most rigorous CFO in the industry, are just a bunch of jokers. They get zero credit for all of the work they have done. They get zero credit for being conservative. They did not go into the Wachovia acquisition with their eyes closed. They went in knowing the markets better than anyone, including Citigroup. That's why I like this one. Still. Right here. Very much. Source | |
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